The connoisseurs of the situation in Kosovo interpret differently for Demostat the escalation of tensions that took place in Banjska in Kosovo last weekend, but the common thread that runs in their assessments is the statement that the whole case with tragic consequences (the blockade of the bridge, the attack of a group of Serbs on the Kosovo police, the murder of a Kosovo police officer and three Serbs, arrests, injuries, the intrusion of armed people in the port of Banjska monastery) is shrouded in a deep veil of mystery. Our interlocutors do not exclude the possibility that the extremely fragile situation in the North will escalate into armed conflicts, since it has again proved that Pristina cannot establish power in the northern part of Kosovo, an area mostly inhabited by Serbs, and some of them state that additional international forces should be deployed in the North.

Franz-Lothar Altmann, an independent German academic and professor of international relations at the Faculty of Bucharest, states for Demostat: “It is difficult from outside to come to a definite conclusion concerning the background of what happened Sunday in northern Kosovo. I would prefer that an international investigation is checking the documents, the weapons and the cars that have been seized by Kosovo police in order to find out who is finally responsible for the terrorist attack. The statement of President Vucic that it is just a response to violent oppression exerted by the Pristina government cannot be taken as a real excuse neither as an explanation for this terrorist attack by Serbian people. For me it seems clear that without strong support from authorities/organizations from Serbia proper such an organized and well equipped attack could not be undertaken!”

British official Leo Docherty said during a visit to Belgrade on Thursday that the attackers from Kosovo should be brought to justice. As reported by N1, Docherty pointed out that the United Kingdom strongly condemns the violent attack on the Kosovo police and calls on the authorities in Belgrade and Pristina to work together to bring the perpetrators to justice.

US ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill said that the escalation of violence in Banjska in Kosovo is a "tragic event" and that further steps are being considered. "We must all condemn the murder of a member of the Kosovo police and always regret the loss of life, but we must continue with the political process. Processes are underway to foster dialogue, "Hill said at a public debate" the changing geopolitical environment and challenges to the international legal order, " N1 reported.

Aleksandar Vucic, as a guest on the show “Oko” on RTS, said: “I will ask that they show you the murder of a police officer from a drone. We are waiting for confirmation, we have persons who are ready to be protected witnesses, who will tell how he was killed. We asked one of our experts to go for an autopsy, especially they made a problem about one murder, because we have information that he was shot from about 12 meters at the moment when he threw the rifle and raised his hands”.

The Serbian President stressed that he “will not defend anyone”, but that the killed Serbs”will never be terrorists to him". Asked whether Serbs would be forced to create some kind of self-defense movement, Vucic said that he is begging them to try to get what belongs to us in a peaceful way. "To try everything in a peaceful way, to have our last option be to protect the lives of our people, but peace is our interest, I invite them to it, I ask them for it," he said.

According to Altman, for the worsening situation in northern Kosovo, “both sides must be blamed - Prime Minister Kurti for not being able to present a proposal on how the requested community of Serb municipalities will be formed, and Belgrade, which has constantly fueled the Serb population in northern Kosovo with unnecessary accusations against the Kosovo government and support to carry out actions against Pristina, such as blocking new local elections.

“Belgrade must accept that Kosovo will never return to the rule of Serbia, and, therefore, it must try to support a solution that would be best for the remaining Serbs in northern Kosovo," he said. When asked how the international community should stand in the current circumstances of a major political and security crisis in Kosovo, Altman States: “the international community should deploy additional international police forces, KFOR and EULEX, in the North. Just repeating that Pristina and Belgrade should return to dialogue is not enough! There are too many words and not enough actions”.

Asked whether the worsening situation in Kosovo benefits some of the foreign actors, including Russia and Turkey, since this area, in addition to BiH, was perceived in Demostats earlier research as a possible training ground for various foreign influences, Franz-Lothar Altman concludes: “for Russia, events in Kosovo are always a welcome opportunity to divert the attention of the international community from the war in Ukraine, while Turkey is at the moment more engaged in issues related to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia”.

Russian ambassador to Serbia Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko said that the police operation near Banjska clearly showed Albin Kurtis desire to seize northern Kosovo “but also the support of the West to these plans”.

On the occasion of the deepening crisis in Kosovo, Shpetim Gashi, a member of the council for inclusive governance (CIG), told Demostat: “when blood is spilled, things usually get worse and only get better later. Therefore, I expect that the situation in the North (Kosovo) will escalate, especially with the implementation of actions against the Kosovo police, such as shootings from moving cars, which may develop into an active rebellion”.

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Gashi also notes: "if Kosovo and Serbia do not quickly return to dialogue and implement agreements, a small-scale conflict between the Kosovo police and armed Serbs in the North is inevitable”.

Miodrag Marinkovic, founder of the Center for affirmative social action (CASA) in the northern part of Mitrovica, told Demostat: “the events on Sunday are so politically and diplomatically irrational that it is now naive to say that they cannot be repeated or escalated into large-scale conflicts. The risk is great, especially considering that the political process is designed to bring the normalization of relations to a standstill, with no clear ideas on how to revive it”.

Commenting on the ways in which Aleksandar Vucic and Albin Kurti reacted to the unrest, Marinkovic states: “Kurti received an unexpected gift on the one hand, an armed action against the police that he used and will use as a confirmation of his policy of strong presence of special forces in the North”.

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“Secondly, Pristina did everything to extract maximum diplomatic benefit from this situation, primarily by careful relations with the civilian population and clergy of the Banjska monastery, because they knew that possible civilian casualties of their operation would numb the “moral” but also the political advantage that was shown. Belgrade did the exact opposite. Much of the day was covered by both government officials and the state-controlled media. This opened up space for Pristina to accuse Belgrade of complicity and Kurti made the most of it”, Marinkovic said.

Asked whether the international community could bring under its control four municipalities in northern Kosovo, Miodrag Marinkovic assessed: “the capacity exists or can easily be generated by the rapid filling of KFOR military units. The only question remains whether the international community wants to achieve this through military engagement or through diplomatic pressure. Currently, the focus is on political and diplomatic solutions. It will be successful insofar as the international community is willing to use the levers of pressure to bring both sides to an agreement. Until a few days ago, more precisely the events in Banjska, that pressure was completely directed at Pristina, but that will change from Sunday and I am afraid that the solutions that are coming will be much more unfavorable for the Serbian community”.

Regarding the possible involvement of a foreign factor in the tragic events in Kosovo, Marinkovic notes: “regional stability is a geopolitical goal of the EU and the US because the Western Balkans is on the borders of the Union and any instability would necessarily be transferred to the EU”.

"Secondly, the Western allies need a full focus on Ukraine, so the instability in Kosovo certainly does not suit them. On the other hand, it is precisely because of the “dilution” of this focus that Russia could benefit greatly from the conflict behind the lines of the Ukrainian Front. Especially in those parts of the world where this would require the engagement of the EU and the US. This is exactly what we see in West Africa, and the Western Balkans is a region with such potential. Russia is trying to maintain its influence in the Western Balkans. Whether these developments have a direct connection to the latest events in Kosovo is very difficult to say, because so far very little is known about it, Marinkovic points out.

According to Miodrag Marinkovic, Aleksandar Vucics request to KFOR to take care of all security issues in the north of Kosovo, “instead of Kurtis police”, is “reasonable and that is what the informal representatives of the Serb community and the civil sector insisted on for several months, however, it made sense in a situation where there were peaceful and legitimate demands to sanction the use of excessive force against the civilian population”.

“I am afraid that after the events on Sunday it is too late for such a thing because there was a confrontation with an organized armed group without markings. It was unrealistic to expect KFOR, with its clear peacekeeping mandate, to become involved in such a situation. And what happened was supposed to be obvious. That KFOR will leave the primary role to the Kosovo police”, concludes Miodrag Marinkovic.

“Radoicic has never been hiding“

Vucic told RTS that the vice president of the Serbian List, Milan Radoicic, is in Serbia and will respond to the invitation of the competent authorities. Kosovo interior minister Jeljal Sveclija released a video allegedly showing Radoicic with a group of armed men in front of the Banjska Monastery on Sunday, which Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic called a hoax.