Military journalist Aleksandar Radic told Demostat that by launching a terrorist attack on Israel, Hamas has unprecedentedly provoked the devil and that the dark idea behind October 7th was to create a provocation after which a severe response must follow, like after September 11th.

Radic points out that the only solution for Israel is radical ethnic cleansing of that area, even though no one will openly say it, adding that the systematic destruction of Gaza will continue.

"Theres no way to resolve the Gaza case through negotiations, theres no elegant approach, infantry must enter, a radical development must occur that will last for months and must bring Israel tangible results," he stated.

When asked whether such strikes on Gaza are justified, given that Israel has the right to defense and response, Radic says that we cannot talk about justification because history takes its course, but rather about political decisions, which are often radical and are made after assessing whether the state can bear it in terms of security.

"Israel has a right-leaning government, public opinion is very passionate, and theres a clear idea in the Israeli army and among Jews worldwide that Gaza must fall," he notes.

He adds, however, that the most sensitive topic for Israel now is how to withstand long-term adverse reactions to the large-scale civilian casualties.

"Thats brutal; you cant bring emotions into it, you must assess the situation and not rely on the victims. Israel will drop bombs; it will kill civilians. But Hamas knew what would happen, and no one is innocent in this," said Radic.

Victims have always been a consequence of power games. Theres nothing new in that, Radic adds, pointing out that nowhere have civilian casualties in some collection of political and military reasons been an element of respect in the assessment of the war, except for "Putinophiles," who believe in the theory that the Russian army takes care not to kill civilians, which he finds tragicomic.

Radic estimates that in the coming period, we will be watching images of civilian casualties from Gaza.

Asked how urban warfare will now look like in Gaza, Radic states that Israel has a vast number of reserve units, a traditional approach to organizing the army as could be seen in Europe during the Cold War and in the former Yugoslavia, that the military grows with mobilization, regardless of internal weaknesses.

He compared the mobilization of Israeli reservists to the Russian one, stating that Russia, with a population of 140 million, announced the mobilization of 300,000 people. In contrast, Israel, with a population of 9.7 million, mobilized 360,000 people, which is a huge disproportion.

Radic explains that Israel first embarked on several more minor operations to test the situation and see how strong the defense is, adding that he believes the Israelis will opt for a gradual approach because Hamas has a considerable possibility of maneuvering on their territory, mainly due to the tunnels beneath Gaza. These underground passageways allow for the safe storage of weapons and military equipment.

"The Israeli army faces a serious task of how to clear that up because the dynamics are determined by the image in public opinion. The world public opinion has been bombarded with information about civilian casualties, and the Israeli army is yet to begin ground operations to clean up Gaza," he said.

He notes that, in essence, the plan is to leave Hamas without a population.

However, although Egypt and Jordan have already noticed a hint of intention to transfer the population from Gaza to their territories and rejected it, saying that Israel cannot solve its problems through them, there are hints of some agreement, says Radic.

He adds that the international community has no unified stance on this issue.

Speaking about the fact that the world has been flooded with images of suffering from Gaza, Radic says that a complex political-media game is now being launched on how those forces supporting Israel will cushion the emotional impact from the media in the long term.

"A proven mechanism that will be used is information saturation. When you publish shocking news long enough, the public gets used to it," he notes.

Also, he points out that many underestimate the effects of radicalism on Muslims actions worldwide - in Europe, Russia, and the USA.

He does not rule out the possibility that individual fanatics may organize terrorist attacks somewhere in Europe, but for that reason, there should be no fear of a massive organization of a terrorist offensive, believes Radic.

There is motivation and a restraining mechanism because the forces behind Hamas are facing a favorable moment to build positive public opinion for their cause in the West. One of Hamas ideas of attacking Israel was to bring Israel to a situation where they compromise themselves. Why would you now irresponsibly handle terrorist attacks against your interest? The Western public opinion absorbs the shocking information about the suffering of civilians, and if you were to carry out terrorist attacks in the West, that would change, he notes.

The inevitability of a future conflict between Iran and Israel

Speaking about the role of Iran, Radic states that their role is significant but that they operate through special operations, intelligence work, and political contacts. He adds that Irans influence on Hamas is visible, especially when it comes to technologies that enable the development of military equipment.

Although Iran does everything to distance itself, its traditional partners from the Shiite world, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to various militias in Iraq, are already grinding their teeth, so Israel will have to tie a good part of its army to southern Lebanon, the Golan Heights...

On the other hand, the Americans have shown that they take Iran seriously, among other things, by sending troops to the Mediterranean.

Asked whether it can be expected that Arab countries will unite against Israel, Radic says that their inability to harmonize interests has allowed Israel to survive so far.

"The whole story about Israeli-Arab relations consists of a gap between Israel, which acts unitedly, hits the opponent with a fist, and the Arab world, which, even if it agrees to go against Israel together, dissipates in partial interests," he noted.

He notes that many Arab countries have their calculations - from Egypt, which has been calculating since the Yom Kippur War, to other Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, which approached an agreement with Israel on October 7.

Iran had a strong motivation to prevent the formation of a hypocritical but practical and functional alliance between Arab countries and Israel. Still, after the October 7 attacks, Israel lost the opportunity to normalize relations with those countries. However, no indicators indicate a higher level of unity in the Arab world, except for a lot of noise on the streets, emphasizes Radic.

"Rationally considering the situation, political calculation and selfish interests of individual Arab authorities are at the forefront. Israel has Hamas against it and behind Hamas Iran," he notes.

Looking at the long term, the central theme in any analysis of that region is the relationship between Israel and Iran, which could lead to a large-scale war, which even now seems inevitable, as something that must happen at some point, notes Radic.

Asked if Israel has a scenario for the day after, Radic states that every scenario will undergo various changes, influenced by internal political relations in Israel, relations with the West, and Arab countries...

"To claim that before the start of infantry actions in Gaza, Israel has clear and sustainable scenarios for the future would be quite bold," Radic noted.

The war in Ukraine will not end anytime soon

Speaking about the war in Ukraine, Radic said that the world public is saturated with information, that the war has become static, that material and human losses are still large, and that the war on the ground is now being fought over small places that neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians have heard of before.

"The war is being fought in such a way that no one with their potential has the possibility of a turnaround," notes Radic, adding that this war cannot end anytime soon and that the days ahead are just part of the statistics of a war routine.

Security risk in the Balkans

Speaking about the security situation in the Balkans, Radic says that Bosnia is a much bigger security risk in the region than Kosovo and that NATO recognizes this.

Regarding the Kosovo problem, Radi? believes that the essence of the relationship between the authorities in Belgrade is that they do not want the Serbian public to know what is being done and agreed upon.

He says that before the incidents in Banjska, Belgrade had the most favorable international position due to the radicalism of Albin Kurti, ill-considered moves, the engagement of police forces, and the involvement of Kosovo security services in police actions in the north.

"All of this distanced Kurti from Western support, which was the essence of the idea of Kosovos existence," he said.

As he says, it is clear that relations between Pristina and NATO are deteriorating, as evidenced by the earlier cancellation of a military exercise between Kosovo and the American army this year due to, as he says, the secret engagement of people in actions in the north of Kosovo.

As he says, unfavorable scenarios can be imagined everywhere in the Balkans because many conflicts from the 1990s have not been resolved. Still, there are mechanisms of control, especially while the West is interested in the situation.

"As long as Brussels talks about BiH and Kosovo, there is a mechanism of pressure; the moment the Western world deals with a new crisis, I think we would find ourselves in a situation that would be highly risky because if our politicians from the Balkans decided, we would quickly lose control," he noted.

Radic also notes that Turkey has shown itself as an independent factor wanting to enter the Balkans. Turkeys political, military, and economic presence is strongly felt in the Balkans because that country wants to be a relevant factor in the region and reminds us that the new commander of KFOR is from Turkey.

He concludes that the leading Western countries want a predictable Balkans at all costs, with tolerance towards excesses, populism, and sliding into an authoritarian government regime.

The Serbian Army - a shadow of the shadow of the former organization and part of the propaganda machine of the government

Radic says that the Serbian Army is now neither a shadow of the organization that once existed, that it is undoubtedly investing in weapons and equipment, but that the army consists of people who are, in his opinion, dissatisfied.

He notes that the army now serves as media showing off, a dangerous mechanism that demotivates people.

"In our army, a mechanism of sycophancy has been created that brings benefits to people from the military top, and a mechanism of contempt for the common people," he said.

Commenting on the results of Demostats focus group, according to which Serbs in the north of Kosovo have the most confidence in KFOR when it comes to security, Radic notes that there is a massive gap between the given promises of how we will protect people in Kosovo and reality.

"What to think of us when, after so much talk about patriotism, constant boasting about armaments, displays of the army in live television broadcasts, people down there trust a foreign organization more than ours," Radic wondered.