The year 2030 is indeed the latest possible deadline for Serbias EU membership, as revealed by Demostat on January 30th, from diplomatic circles. This information, from the article titled The Carrot and Stick of the European Proposal, was officially confirmed by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, on Monday, August 28th, while participating in the Bled Strategic Forum. Just a few hours later, French President Emmanuel Macron, in a public address, clearly warned Belgrade and Pristina that measures would be taken against both sides if they did not behave responsibly. Macrons message is also in line with the information that Demostat came across earlier this year.

"EU must be ready to admit new members by 2030... I believe that we must be prepared to expand by 2030. Its ambitious but necessary. It demonstrates that we are serious," said the head of the European Council at Bled. Charles Michels statement confirms the accuracy of Demostats claims from the mentioned article, which stated: "The Big Five informed the President of Serbia during a meeting in Belgrade that if Serbia accepts the European plan for resolving the Kosovo issue, it could join the European Union in 2030. In the meantime, Serbia would gradually integrate into the structures of the European Union, such as the common market, which allows for the free movement of goods, people, capital, and services. Namely, Serbia would progressively gain equal status in the EU when it comes to the four freedoms before becoming a full-fledged member of the political community with voting rights."

The year 2030 as the latest possible timing for Union expansion should be confirmed at the summit of EU leaders and Western Balkan countries to be held in December 2023.

Demostat, as a reminder, had announced in January that if Serbia were to accept the proposed Western plan for resolving the Kosovo issue (which it did in March during marathon negotiations between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti held in Ohrid with EU mediation), it would "not only receive a clear European perspective but also economic assistance through donations and favorable loans, as well as investments in the energy sector, which would free Serbia from dependence on Russia and its monopoly in that domain."

At the same time, Demostat sources claimed that "if Belgrade were to reject the Western plan for Kosovo and demonstrate a lack of constructive engagement in dialogue with Pristina, European and American investments would be suspended and withdrawn." The same stance was expressed by the French president on Monday, who told reporters that the Agreement on the Normalization of Relations between Serbia and Kosovo from February of this year, also known as the Franco-German plan, is the "right way forward," with the caveat that "both sides must be committed." "With Germany, we have drafted a new roadmap for addressing the differences between Serbia and Kosovo. I believe this is a good roadmap that has been endorsed by European negotiators and our representative, so we expect a clear commitment from both sides regarding the elections in the municipalities in northern Kosovo and the renewed participation of Serbs in institutions," Macron said, as reported by the Radio Television of Serbia - RTS.

He also mentioned that France and Germany are committed to this process and have made progress in terms of visa policies and the economy. "We will reconsider this if both sides do not behave responsibly. We expect peace to return to this region. We must be very cautious, especially when it comes to stability in the Western Balkans," emphasized the French president.

According to announcements, a new round of negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina under the auspices of the EU is expected to be held in September. The EUs Special Envoy for this dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak, stated via Twitter on Monday from Bled: "While the pace in Brussels slowed down during the summer, the challenges in the Western Balkans have not disappeared. One specific area that remains high on my agenda is the situation in northern Kosovo. In preparation for the coming months and to strengthen our joint efforts further, I invited the US Deputy Assistant Secretary (Gabriel) Escobar to Brussels, and together with our teams, we had detailed discussions on dialogue issues, shared assessments of the current situation, developments over the past months, and expectations for the future. We also made an effort to align the necessary next steps and priorities."

On the other hand, the Prime Minister of Serbia, Ana Brnabic, and Albin Kurti engaged in a sharp verbal exchange in Bled. As reported by FoNet, Kurti stated that it is time for all six countries in the Western Balkans to mutually recognize each other, while Brnabic emphasized that Kosovo and Serbia are one country for her, not two countries, and that Kosovo is not a member of the United Nations, and she doubts it will become a member of the EU, "at least as long as there are two non-recognizers."

The only point of agreement during the discussion at the Bled Strategic Forum between Brnabic and Kurti was the necessity to normalize relations between Belgrade and Pristina.

Acceleration for the Western Balkans

Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob stated at the Bled Forum that many things have changed regarding EU enlargement since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. "In the next 12 months, I am quite certain that the enlargement process will take on a new shape," he said, urging Western Balkan leaders to continue implementing necessary reforms. Golobs rhetoric aligns with the statements made by EU official Angelina Eichhorst in an exclusive interview with Demostat titled "The Western Balkans is Europe" back in March, where she stated, "The war in Ukraine has changed everything. We are witnessing a significant acceleration of transitions - green, digital, energy, security, and the Western Balkans should be part of this acceleration."

Published on August 29th, 2023