On March 3rd, the deadline for the constitution of the City Assembly in the capital officially expired. The question remains why it took so long to make the decision to repeat the vote. According to Demostat, such a move was logical and expected, since procrastination, i.e. the use of maximum legal deadlines, is part of the SNS governing technology. Let us remind that the same scenario was seen during the formation of several convocations of Republic Governments, so we have the situation that prime ministers and ministers in technical mandates and temporary bodies (when it comes to Belgrade), govern for up to a year.

That the new elections will be held in Belgrade, Demostat predicted a few days after the elections held on December 17th 2023 (https://demostat.rs/sr/vesti/analize/vucic-nagovestava-da-ce-lokalni-izbori-u-beogradu-biti-ponovljeni/1949).

As we predicted at the time, the SNS is trying to portray the repetition of the vote as an inability to form a ruling majority in the capital, and not as a repetition due to electoral theft. If we recall what happened in the meantime - the decision of the opposition not to accept the results, the lack of congratulations to the authorities by any EU representative (such congratulations were common before), street protests in Belgrade, the hunger strike of opposition politicians, the Resolution of the European Parliament, the ODIHR  Report, it was clear that the Government was under great pressure due to irregular elections.

That the new elections will be held in the capital became certain after the members of the EP overwhelmingly voted for the Resolution, which pointed out numerous irregularities in the electoral process in Serbia, and called for the launch of an independent international investigation into it. (https://www.danas.rs/vesti/politika/milomir-mandic-da-nije-bilo-rezolucije-evropskog-parlamenta-i-poruke-eu-danas-bi-u-beogradu-bila-izabrana-vlast/)

Moreover, the ODIHR Report was another confirmation that the election “race” was held in “unfair conditions”, due to the media and every other domination of the ruling party, including the ubiquitous official campaign, and numerous cases of group voting.

Such assessments by international observers were the main reason for the Progressives to make the decision that the new elections will be held in Belgrade, not the inability to form a new ruling majority in the capital. Let us recall 2022, when the local government were held in the capital thanks to the “flyover” from the POKS, but at the time there was no harsh Resolution of the European Parliament, nor the EU position that the blind eye would be turned to Vucic, when it comes to the numerous shortcomings of the electoral process.

At the same time, Vucic’s comparison with the situation of 2008 is not appropriate. ("My plea for you is to consider not having a repeat of 2008 and someone who will call it” illegitimate formation of the Government"), the President of Serbia told the Progressives publicly, asking them to make a decision on a new vote in the capital). In the year 2008 no one from the European Union contested the election.

The president of Serbia is well aware of the importance of the European Union for the economy and the budget of Serbia, which implies regular payment of pensions and salaries of public sector employees, i.e. people on whose votes Vucic counts most.

According to unofficial knowledge of Demostat from political circles, Vucic will also be present at this campaign for the local elections in Belgrade, because “it is his decision and responsibility to go to a new vote”. However, our sources note that the President of the State will go less to “the field among voters and political rallies, but he is expected to visit and open infrastructure facilities, as well as to attend the beginning of works on the initiated projects in Belgrade”.

As it is claimed, Vucic already has the results of the research “and will always receive them, and will thus direct the campaign of the authorities in Belgrade”. According to our knowledge, he is expected to be photographed for promotional activities with officials of the Progressives, as well as with representatives of the Movement for People and State, which is in formation (Progressives will be a “striking force” of this political group), and will appear on pro-government television channels throughout the campaign (just as he did in the campaign for the December elections, held on several levels), especially in the last days, i.e. in the end of the campaign because “he does not want to suffer the fate of Erdogan and Orban, whose candidates were defeated in the elections in the capital”.

Let us remind that the Socialist Party of Serbia announced on Sunday that it “expresses its full commitment to participate in the repeated elections in Belgrade with the SNS”. As it was said, the city committee of Socialists “will take maximum active part in joint electoral activities”.

When it comes to the opposition, Demostat estimates that the main task of the largest opposition group “Serbia against violence” is to stay together and be inclusive. (https://demostat.rs/sr/vesti/ekskluziva/put-za-opoziciju/1982)

The SNS will, by all accounts, form a broad pre-election coalition, i.e. the already mentioned Movement for the People and the State, which, it is possible, will also include the Socialist Party of Serbia, the conspirators and part of the movement “We, The Voice of the people”. In such circumstances, the opposition parties should respond by forming an even wider front against the government, i.e. new consolidation - including not only parties, but also other organizations, such as trade unions and similar ones.

According to Demostat, today there are several groups that are formally opposition, but essentially the opposition at the moment can only be called “Serbia against violence” and the coalition NADA. For example, the movement “We, The Voice of the people”, which has split into several factions, is formally an opposition group that “emerged” on national frequencies, and it cannot be said that it is essential to the opposition to Vucics government, nor are the conspirators, whose President is thought to resume  some of position in the new government.

As we estimate, the opposition has a chance to win new local elections in Belgrade, because most of the citizens of Belgrade are aware of the real reason for the repetition of the elections. However, in order for such a scenario to happen, better electoral conditions are needed, including the opening of a public service broadcaster for critics of the government, and better access to the voter list, with better control at polling stations.

Demostat expects the Government to continue the “dirty” campaign, which includes blackmail, intimidation, bribery of voters, which is why it is necessary for the opposition to provide reliable controllers at the polls.